What is the Kelly fraction?
It is a theoretical fraction of capital that maximizes long-run logarithmic growth under the model assumptions.
Kelly Criterion Calculator for Crypto
Estimate Kelly, half Kelly and quarter Kelly from your trading edge.
Inputs
25.00%
Full Kelly fraction
12.50%
Half Kelly
6.25%
Quarter Kelly
$1,250.00
Half Kelly amount of equity
How it’s calculated
Kelly fraction f = W − (1 − W) ÷ R, where W is win probability and R is average win divided by average loss. Half and quarter Kelly scale this value.
Assumptions
The model assumes repeated bets with stable win probability and payoff, no correlated outcomes, and no fees or changing market conditions. It is not a recommended staking instruction.
Sources
Win rate, average win/loss and equity are user inputs. No live data is used.
FAQ
Why use half Kelly?
A smaller fraction reduces volatility and sensitivity to inaccurate win-rate and payoff estimates.
What does negative Kelly mean?
The inputs imply a negative edge. The calculator shows the negative fraction and sets the optional suggested risk amount to zero.